For months, Republican Donald Trump led the polls in voter confidence, particularly on issues related to the economy. But that's changing. According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has managed to neutralize Trump’s advantage on economic issues, thanks to Latino voters. The battle for the Latino vote is far from decided and will be a critical factor in the outcome of the presidential election.
Latino confidence is divided
According to the poll conducted between August 21 and August 28, registered Latino voters share concerns similar to those of other communities, with the economy, immigration, health, and climate change being their top priorities.
Despite registered voters generally preferring Trump’s economic approach over Harris’s by a margin of 45% to 36%, Latino voters support both candidates equally with 39% each. This marks an improvement for Democrats, considering that in May, a previous poll showed Biden, who was still a candidate at the time, trailing Trump by four points on economic issues among Latinos.
In health policies, Harris garners 46% approval among Latinos compared to 29% for Trump, while on climate change, the Democrat’s lead is even greater, with 46% compared to 23%.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump maintains a slight edge on issues like immigration control, with 42% support among Latino voters, compared to 37% who back Harris.
Latinos will choose the next president
The Latino vote is growing at a rapid pace. Nationally, a narrow majority (53%) of all Latinos in the country are eligible to vote, according to an analysis by the Pew Research Center.
It’s estimated that 36.2 million Latinos will be eligible to vote this year, a significant increase from 32.3 million in 2020. That's a huge leap of 153% compared to 2000 when 14.3 million Latinos were eligible.
Today, this group represents 14.7% of all eligible voters, marking a new record.
Although Latino voter turnout has historically been lower than other groups, their growing numbers and youth suggest that their influence will continue to rise in the future. Only 33% of eligible Latino voters are over the age of 50.
In key states like North Carolina, where 40% of Latinos are eligible to vote, their participation could be decisive in the upcoming elections.
Latinos are not a monolith
After the last presidential elections, Latinos became the largest voting group in the country after Anglo-Americans. This largely thanks to more young Latinos reaching the age of majority and more immigrants becoming naturalized.
This is a diverse group with different perspectives and needs. With various electoral races being so close, it would be a grave mistake for parties to take Latinos for granted or, worse, ignore them.
This group is the true “swing” group, the decisive element when it comes to determining a close electoral race. It’s time for political parties and candidates to pay attention to the needs of these voters.
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