The campaign of former President Donald Trump has a short list of policy proposals if he comes to power again. On the immigration issue, he no longer proposes building a wall on the southern border, as he couldn’t achieve this during his presidency. Instead, he has focused on promoting the idea of mass deportations of 11 million undocumented immigrants. What would be the economic and social consequences of this measure?
The constant exposure in the national media about the humanitarian crisis at the southern border has distorted the collective perception of voters on this issue, making the idea of a massive deportation program “attractive.”
According to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, 62% of registered voters would support the government initiating “a national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living illegally in the United States.” Alarmingly, the poll found that mass deportation was popular among a majority of Latino voters: 53% said they would support such a program.
But beyond populist promises and crises exacerbated by national media, deporting millions of immigrants, aside from being a logistical nightmare funded by public money, could have enormous consequences for the future of the country.
Would unemployment drop if all undocumented immigrants were deported?
A 2022 study estimates that between 8% and 10% of undocumented immigrants in the United States are business owners. These entrepreneurs generate up to $17.2 billion in business revenue nationwide and create thousands of jobs annually.
According to research published last year by the University of Colorado, “for every million unauthorized immigrant workers detained and deported from the United States, 88,000 native U.S. workers would be unemployed.”
It is estimated that if three million immigrants were deported per year, it would mean 263,000 fewer jobs occupied by U.S. workers, and this would worsen with each additional year this plan continues.
Would mass deportations make us a better country?
A report published in April by the Office of Homeland Security Statistics (OHSS) estimates that 8 out of 10 undocumented immigrants have lived 10 years or more in the United States. These people are not just passing through; they have set down roots here. Mass deportations would mean separated families, and millions of American children would have to live far from their parents. This would go against the current spirit of immigration law, which seeks family unity, and would betray the historical values that have forged this nation of immigrants for centuries.
Would there be less crime without immigrants?
While it cannot be denied that there are cases of immigrants who come to commit crimes, statistics suggest that these are the exception, not the norm. This is confirmed by researchers Charis Kubrin and Graham Ousey, authors of the book Immigration and Crime: Taking Stock, who analyzed numerous studies over decades on this topic and concluded that immigration to a specific area is not associated with a crime increase. They suggest that, statistically speaking, more immigration equates to less crime.
What is behind the proposal for mass deportations?
The reality is that economic, historical, and social reasons do not drive the idea of a mass deportation plan; numerous academic studies indicate this. It is nothing more than a populist plan that appeals to misguided voters or ultra-conservative bases looking for a “scapegoat” to blame for the failures of our system.
Do not be deceived. Mass deportations would have devastating economic and social costs that would irreparably affect the future of the country.