On January 20, Donald Trump will once again assume the presidency with a key promise: to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. There are high expectations from both supporters and opponents of this idea. Meanwhile, we've observed a sort of disinformation campaign circulating from officials of the new administration and in social media, which is essentially fostering an unnecessary climate of fear among immigrants. But beyond empty promises and speculation, how realistic are mass deportations?
Grounding the Reality of Mass Deportations
Currently, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency has around 48,000 people in custody and only 14 planes available for deportation. Each aircraft can carry up to 135 people, allowing for a maximum of 1,890 deportations per day, if operating at full capacity.
In addition to the lack of aircraft, ICE faces multiple logistical and legal challenges. Each deportation requires a legal review process, international coordination, and authorizations, slowing operations down. The procedures to ensure flight safety and compliance with international regulations impose additional restrictions.
Someone might argue that more flights could be contracted, but it's not simple. This is a complex governmental process that needs congressional authorization to be funded, even if it involves Air Force planes.
According to immigration attorney Héctor Quiroga, in addition to the time needed to expand the air fleet and staff, the cost of mass deportations in the first 100 days of the new administration could exceed $100 billion.
Given these challenges, the Trump administration might consider alternative strategies, such as collaborating with other countries to facilitate repatriations or using alternative transportation methods like buses—a titanic task that would neither be swift nor economical.
Aiming to Instill Fear
Considering all these logistical limitations, why do officials in the new administration continue to make grandiose promises about mass deportations? The answer may lie in a previously used tactic: cruelty as a deterrent.
If we recall, during Trump's first administration, one of the most cruel and shameful immigration plans in recent history was implemented. The “zero tolerance” policy separated thousands of immigrant children from their parents at the border. The infamous images of children forcibly taken to shelters across the country, even placed in cages, will remain etched in the history of disgrace.
This ruthless plan intended to deter people from coming to the United States, sending the message that if they tried, they could lose their children.
Today, it seems that the same deterrent tactics aim to create a climate of fear in the immigrant community. What's sad about this is that behind the threats, false news, and hyperboles, real people are suffering. There are parents forgoing services rightfully owed to their children, and there is anxiety about an uncertain future.
It is true that the new Trump administration will be tough on undocumented immigrants and will likely separate thousands of families. Immigrants must be prepared, be exemplary citizens, and make plans, but it is also true that we must not give in to fear. The best way to combat fear is by staying informed through reliable sources, remembering the reason many of us immigrants came to this country, committing ourselves to our families, our work, our community, and having faith.
Find this article in Spanish here.